Nintendo kept its full-year Switch 2 sales forecast at 19 million units Tuesday, despite third-quarter revenue missing analyst estimates by roughly 5%.
The gaming giant reported ¥806.32 billion ($5.2 billion) in Q3 revenue versus ¥847.73 billion expected. Net profit came in at ¥159.93 billion, beating the ¥147.3 billion consensus.
Since launching June 5, 2025, Nintendo has shipped 10.36 million Switch 2 units. The console is tracking ahead of the original Switch's first 13 months (17.79 million units), with strong Q2 performance driving 4.54 million sales in the September quarter alone.
The real question is sustainability. Nintendo's stock has dropped more than 30% from its August peak above ¥14,000, now trading around ¥9,700. Two headwinds are in focus: surging memory component prices and a software tie ratio that remains low at roughly 2:1, with half of those sales being bundled copies of Mario Kart World (9.57 million units sold).
The software pipeline matters here. Pokémon Legends: Z-A shipped October 16, 2025, but the company needs consistent releases to drive attach rates beyond launch titles. The original Switch took time to hit software sales peaks, a pattern Nintendo is betting repeats.
Nintendo raised its full-year net sales forecast to ¥2.25 trillion in November (from ¥1.9 trillion), a 93.1% year-over-year jump. Net profit guidance sits at ¥350 billion, up 25.5% year-over-year. Suppliers are reportedly ramping production to 25 million units by March 2026.
Worth noting: The original Switch forecast was cut to 4 million units for the fiscal year. Nintendo is managing a platform transition while expanding into Southeast Asian markets.
The company faces the standard post-launch questions every console maker does. Years two and three will show whether Switch 2 can maintain momentum or if the initial surge was pent-up demand from a delayed replacement cycle. Memory pricing and software cadence are the variables to watch.