The Trump administration convened 54 countries in Washington this week for its Critical Minerals Ministerial, announcing bilateral supply agreements with 11 nations and launching the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE).
India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar confirmed participation in FORGE, positioning New Delhi as both producer and consumer in the emerging bloc. The timing is strategic: China currently controls 70-90% of critical mineral processing for lithium, cobalt, and graphite, materials essential for AI chips and renewable energy systems.
Vice President JD Vance outlined plans for "reference prices" at each production stage, maintained through adjustable tariffs. "We will establish reference prices for critical minerals," Vance said. "For members of the preferential zone, these reference prices will operate as a floor maintained through adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity."
The approach differs from traditional trade agreements. Rather than eliminating tariffs, the bloc focuses on supply chain redundancy and "diverse centers of production," according to Vance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned of risks from concentration in "one country," citing Beijing's selective export restrictions.
The real test: implementation. Historical trade blocs took years to operationalize. Questions remain about how price coordination works without violating antitrust norms, whether developing nations will commit to supply agreements over higher-paying buyers, and whether the bloc can meaningfully reduce China's processing dominance.
Practical challenges are significant. Rare earth refining requires substantial environmental compliance infrastructure, which drove much processing to China over decades. US rare earth processing plants face construction costs in the hundreds of millions, with permitting timelines of 5-7 years. Alternative technologies like iron nitride magnets for semiconductors remain largely experimental.
Washington also announced Project Vault this week: a $12 billion strategic reserve for rare earths, lithium, and copper, backed by $10 billion from the US Export-Import Bank. The reserve aims to stabilize prices for manufacturers.
China is preparing its 15th Five-Year Plan, which will outline industrial priorities and mineral requirements. Beijing has historically used supply chain dominance as a negotiating tool, selectively restricting exports of gallium and germanium in 2023.
Notably absent from current reporting: specific mining projects identified for development, concrete investment commitments from participating nations, or timelines for operational production capacity outside China.